I gotta be honest, I’ve never heard of a UFA tender but without reading anything about it, it sounds like the Steelers are getting a little nervous about Rodgers returning. I think ChatGPT described it best (Steelers fans may want to skip past this):
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a dock at the edge of a foggy harbor, and Aaron Rodgers is a seasoned ship captain drifting just offshore, undecided about where to anchor next.
The UFA tender is the Steelers tossing out a glowing buoy tied to their dock—not a chain, not a command, just a signal:
“You can sail wherever you want… but if you come back, this spot is already saved—and if another harbor tries to lure you in, we get a chance to match it or at least be compensated for losing you.”
In other news, we got some great feedback and are going to be slowly integrating some changes which rework the formatting of some of the sections below over the next couple weeks, so stay tuned for that!
📅 25 days until OTAs
🏈 Deep Dive
Adjusted Vacated Targets — 2026 Outlook
Regular-season targets from 2025 that vacated each team, minus the extrapolated 17-game target demand (median ppg × 17) of each new incoming WR/TE/RB. Sorted by net available targets.
Last week I sent out an early Vacated Targets & YPRR analysis. What that analysis doesn't account for is the number of targets a player is expected bring with them for all new players joining a given team in the 2026 off season. Below is that same table I sent out last week but adjusted by the median number of targets each incoming player had last year, extrapolated over a full season.
Contextualizing the Data
It's not perfect, but it does paint a more honest and up-front picture of available targets. For example, last week's table made it look like there were a TON of opportunities in SF, but after factoring in the signings of Mike Evans and Christian Kirk, a lot of the opportunities are already accounted for. In fact when adjusted there are -43 targets, meaning overall the room got a little more crowded than it did vacated.
It is very important to contextualize like this about some of the rows below. For example WAS went from 226 to -63. What!? It feels like WAS hasn't signed anyone, but actually they've have had a quietly busy off-season: Chig Okonkwo (TE, 85); Dyami Brown (WR, 68); Van Jefferson (WR, 68); Rachaad White (RB, 34); Jerome Ford (RB, 34). Still, none of these names are exactly stalwart target earners - and if I'm contextualizing this I'm putting a bit of a discount on these estimated numbers. If WAS signs a bigger name, I'd expect targets to concentrate there more heavily.
Another great example of contextualizing is in last year's adjusted numbers - SEA ranked 4th with 118 available opportunities, factoring in 128 targets from Cooper Kupp joining the team. But with Kupp's high usage on a thin Rams team and his general decline, I don't think anyone would have actually thought he was going to capture 128 targets. You could probably infer that SEA would be closer to 200 not 118. JSN szn 🚀
Yes there is a little bit of thinking involved about each teams situation but that's the beauty in the eye of the beholder! If your brain is in off-season mode, I get it. I've chewed a bit on this table for you and have given some of my favorite players as the result of it.
Other notes to help you contextualize:
The adjustment inherently assumes a full healthy season from incoming players
Positional targets matter. Gainwell is probably not going to have 85 targets in the Buccaneers offense next year, and TB still has 76 adjusted targets available at WR
Some take-aways:
Lot of teams at the top profile as good offenses with above average QBs and (annoyingly) more balanced pass attacks: GB, JAX, CHI, IND, LAC.
For those teams, a good way to extract value is by going cheap (Jayden Reed, Parker Washinton, Odunze, Downs, QJ) or by going TE where applicable (Kraft, Gadsden, Loveland, Warren)
LAV strikes me as a situation where Jeanty is going to get a million dump offs
There are some players that I have no idea what to make of, and beauty is surely in the eye of beholder (Alec Pierce, Christian Watson, Brian Thomas Jr.)
Team | Total | WR | TE | RB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
GB | 170 | 138 | 15 | 17 |
MIA | 157 | 105 | 52 | 0 |
JAX | 132 | 61 | 19 | 52 |
IND | 130 | 110 | 0 | 20 |
CHI | 127 | 121 | 6 | 0 |
LAC | 126 | 122 | 13 | -9 |
KC | 123 | 119 | 1 | 3 |
NYJ | 114 | 101 | 9 | 4 |
BAL | 95 | 47 | 36 | 12 |
MIN | 82 | 71 | 6 | 5 |
PIT | 80 | -12 | 58 | 34 |
HOU | 68 | 60 | -9 | 17 |
ARI | 56 | 1 | 7 | 48 |
CLE | 54 | -17 | 31 | 40 |
LV | 53 | 35 | 0 | 18 |
CIN | 41 | 0 | 41 | 0 |
NO | 37 | 102 | -14 | -51 |
TB | 36 | 76 | 0 | -40 |
CAR | 25 | -25 | 0 | 50 |
SEA | 22 | 3 | 0 | 19 |
NE | 20 | 25 | -8 | 3 |
LA | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
ATL | 3 | 21 | -34 | 16 |
DET | -14 | -4 | -5 | -5 |
DAL | -26 | -34 | 0 | 8 |
SF | -43 | -55 | 0 | 12 |
BUF | -47 | -47 | 0 | 0 |
NYG | -53 | 6 | -59 | 0 |
WAS | -63 | 7 | -13 | -57 |
TEN | -83 | -60 | 45 | -68 |
DEN | -98 | -98 | 0 | 0 |
PHI | -108 | -94 | -17 | 3 |
GB: Tucker Kraft, Jayden Reed (at cost)
JAX: Parker Washington
IND: Tyler Warren, Josh Downs (at cost)
CHI: Loveland, Odunze
KC: Rashee Rice
LAC: Ladd McConkey, QJ (at cost), Gadsden (at cost)
NYJ: Garrett Wilson, Omar Cooper Jr. (at cost)
BAL: Zay Flowers
MIN: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison
HOU: Nico Collins
📰 News
Steelers Slap Rare UFA Tender on Aaron Rodgers
I swear teams just make up these types of tags and the league pretends they have always existed.
A 10 percent raise to roughly $15 million — that's what the rare right-of-first-refusal tender Pittsburgh placed on Aaron Rodgers would pay him in 2026, per @AdamSchefter. The tender preserves the Steelers' eligibility for a compensatory pick if Rodgers signs elsewhere and grants exclusive negotiating rights once training camp opens. Steelers president Art Rooney II told @TomPelissero the team alerted Rodgers and his representative beforehand: "not a real big deal," calling it coverage "in the unlikely event he goes somewhere else." Rooney expects the situation to conclude "in the next few weeks." Rodgers threw for 3,322 yards and 24 touchdowns in 16 games for Pittsburgh in 2025.
The Steelers placed a rare right-of-first-refusal tender on Aaron Rodgers — paying him roughly $15M in 2026 with a likely McCarthy reunion despite Pittsburgh drafting Drew Allar in the third round and adding Michael Pittman Jr. behind DK Metcalf — but at 42 he still profiles as only a low-upside, low-end QB2 in superflex leagues.
Some analysts view the tender as making a late-season Philip Rivers–style signing elsewhere "difficult if not impossible" — a move designed to force a decision.
There is no indication any other club has shown serious interest in Rodgers since March, making a Pittsburgh return the heavy favorite outcome.
r/nfl consensus is exasperated fatigue — commenters had never heard of this tender and want Rodgers to sign or retire already.
Pittsburgh drafted Penn State QB Drew Allar in the third round, with Mason Rudolph a likely trade candidate at the end of preseason if Rodgers returns, per Ian Rapoport.
⚡ Quick Hits
Allgeier Back in a Committee After Cardinals Draft Jeremiyah Love
Tyler Allgeier left Atlanta in free agency to sign with Arizona for the chance to be a lead back, but the Cardinals used the third overall pick on Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love, per @AdamSchefter. Arizona is paying Allgeier $12.25 million across two seasons. Love is the highest-drafted running back since Saquon Barkley went No. 2 in 2018.
❄️ Per the headline, Jeremiyah Love appears ticketed for a potential committee role in a crowded backfield, capping his early-career fantasy ceiling.
Schefter named Allgeier his biggest "draft loser," noting Arizona's $7M-this-year commitment never altered the team's stance on Love.
Early projections peg the Love-to-Allgeier carry split around 65:35, with Allgeier potentially retaining goal-line work as the bigger 220-pound back.
Love enters the league with the most guaranteed money ever for a running back — just under $53.9M over four years — setting a high performance bar.
👀 Roster Rumblings
Jauan Jennings Set for Vikings Visit -- 49ers free-agent wide receiver Jauan Jennings is reportedly visiting the Minnesota Vikings Tuesday night and Wednesday, per @AdamSchefter, citing a source.
Carson Beck in the Mix for Cardinals QB Job -- With uncertainty swirling around the Cardinals' quarterback situation, Carson Beck "has as good a shot as anyone" at the job, per @RapSheet on The Insiders.
🔭 Injury Watch
🟢 George Kittle -- 49ers GM John Lynch said on NFL Network that the tight end is progressing well from his torn Achilles, per @RapSheet: "He's going to be ready at some point, if not for the first game."
🟢 Bo Nix -- Nix had a successful and anticipated follow-up cleanup procedure on his fractured ankle during a re-check with Dr. Norman Waldrop, per @RapSheet. Mike Garafolo adds that the recovery remains on track, though the Broncos are expected to be conservative with his spring participation.
🔴 Darius Slayton -- The Giants wideout recently underwent surgery for a core-muscle injury, per @MikeGarafolo. Slayton will miss the spring but is expected to be a full go for training camp.
🎧 Recent Podcast Episodes
[Fantasy Footballers] NFL Draft Recap: NFC Winners & Losers - Fantasy Football Podcast for 4/30 - Fantasy Football show for Apr 30, 2026. NFL Draft Recap continues! A breakdown of every NFC team and the most impacted players for fantasy football. Find out which rookies are set up to help fantas...
[Reception Perception] BONUS: 2026 NFL schedule planning with Mike North! | ‘It's Always Gameday In Buffalo’ - The 2026 NFL schedule release, a tentpole event of the offseason, occurs in mid May. Audacy Original podcast ‘It's Always Gameday In Buffalo’ chatted with one of the men who's at the center of plan...
[Reception Perception] [FULL EPISODE] Breaking Down NFL Draft Round 3 WRs - Matt Harmon and James Koh highlight the immense number of wide outs taken in the third round of the NFL Draft (9/36 picks were WRs), including: - Antonio Williams goes to Commanders - Malachi Fie...
[Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast] The Show: Rookie Values, Draft Reaches, and More - JJ and Kitchen talk about last weekend's draft, players JJ has ranked above ADP for rookie drafts, draft-day reaches, and more on this week's Late-Round Fantasy Football Show. Make sure to check ou...
[Reception Perception] [BONUS] Analyzing Mid-To-Late Round WR Landing Spots - In addition to yesterday's look at the top WR taken in the draft, James Koh and Matt Harmon are back again to analyze the landing spots for the rest of the receiving class, including: - Jets take ...
[Fantasy Football with Josh & Hayden] The Ultimate Early 2026 Fantasy Football WR Rankings - WIDE RECEIVER RANKINGS – Fantasy Football TOP 53 (2026) Josh and Hayden break down their Top 53 Wide Receiver Rankings for the 2026 fantasy football season. Where is the WR cliff? How should you ha...
🤖 AI-Generated
Sources are cited and linked. We support our fellow content creators.