Post-draft stock market fallout; Jayden Daniels looking incredible in offseason workouts

Saturday night belonged to Tyrese Maxey and the Philadelphia 76ers who upset the number 2 seeded Celtics for their first playoff series win over Boston since 1982. All the Tatum haters got to revel in the sight of a very sad looking Tatum who was sidelined from the action with a left leg injury. On the football side, the Colts have officially declined Anthony Richardson's fifth-year option, putting the 2023 No. 4 overall pick on a contract clock just as Indianapolis's quarterback room enters a pivotal offseason.

The Wayne County Prosecutor's Office closed the book on the December 21 incident at Ford Field, announcing that DK Metcalf will not face criminal charges stemming from his altercation with a fan during the Steelers' win over the Lions. After an extensive review of video footage and interviews with the fan, security and bystanders, the prosecutor cited as the key factor that the 45-year-old fan, who had left his seat in a Metcalf jersey hoping to ask for an autograph, "did not appear to be injured, nor did he seek medical attention at the game." The NFL had previously suspended Metcalf two games for "conduct detrimental to the NFL," a punishment that — after an unsuccessful appeal — voided $45 million in guaranteed money over the next two years, though Metcalf can still earn that money through his contract. Civil exposure remains: the fan, Ryan Kennedy, has filed a $100 million lawsuit naming Metcalf, the Steelers, Ford Field, Chad Johnson and Shannon Sharpe as defendants, and his attorney says the no-charges decision has no bearing on the civil case. Fantasy managers can file this under "off-field overhang resolved" — Metcalf enters 2026 with no further league discipline pending.

Commanders GM Adam Peters told NFL Network that Jayden Daniels "looks great. He feels great. He's healthy" after working in Los Angeles with his trainers and throwing coach. Daniels' 2025 was wrecked by a Week 2 left knee sprain, a Week 7 right hamstring strain and a Week 9 dislocated left elbow that he later reaggravated, limiting him to seven games, 1,262 passing yards and 10 total touchdowns. His personal QB coach Ryan Porter said the focus this offseason is adding lean muscle to get "a little bigger, faster, and stronger." Of Washington's eight free-agent signings totaling roughly $214.3 million, seven were defensive players, with tight end Chig Okonkwo the lone offensive addition. Daniels is a clear bounce-back QB1 target in fantasy drafts.

Njoku Set to Visit Chargers Monday

Former Browns tight end David Njoku is visiting the Chargers on Monday, with the free agent eyeing a landing spot that would give Justin Herbert a legitimate pass-catching option at the position. The potential fit has dynasty managers rostering Gadsden sweating, as a Njoku signing in Los Angeles would crater the incumbent's snap outlook.

Rodgers' 2026 Path Narrowing to Steelers or Retirement -- Aaron Rodgers' options for the 2026 season may be narrowing to Pittsburgh or retirement, framing the veteran's next move as a binary choice rather than an open market. If accurate, dynasty managers holding Rodgers shares should be planning around a Steelers-or-bust outcome.

With the draft one week in our rear-views, we have real market data on who the biggest risers and fallers are over the last month, including from the NFL draft. These are taken from Underdog’s Best Ball ADP, from early April → Today, so not precisely just capturing the draft, but close.

I don’t think anyone expected Price’s ADP to climb into the 50s! That’s maybe the value I would have expected after a full preseason of positive coverage. I wouldn’t expect him to be that high in redraft ADP when that season comes, unless the buzz from preseason builds enough steam. I think for redraft this will be purely a wait-and-see what we hear from training camp, so stay tuned to our Training Camp Buzz section over the next few months.

No surprises with Rice and Smith, we wrote about both of those players last week, along with Tony Pollard and Cam Skattebo. The price of all of these guys, except Rice is in my opinion starting to push into meh value territory. The market has caught on to Jayden Reed as well.

I’m very surprised that Wicks’ value is not in the red, probably because this data also captures his trade from GB to PHI, so the net of that plus the draft is still positive.

I know people weren’t crazy on the Cardinals as a landing spot for Love but what a nuke: the top 3 fallers are all from the AZ RB room. Love’s value dropped by about 50% from a mid second almost to an early third, which is indicative of both risk and value. James Conner joins Trey Benson as two cooked pieces of toast. Oddly Trey McBride seems to have taken some collateral damage from the draft as well - maybe pertaining more to Carson Beck being taken in the 3rd round?

Olave falling is awesome, frankly. The Saints high pace offense should have plenty of pie to share around to Jordan Tyson, defenses will be more stretched out, and there’s always the added wildcard of a year 2 Shough leap. Of course this is best ball data, but I’ll be all over Olave for a late third round pick if that ends up his redraft value.

Fannin, Bucky, and Pearsall are all getting yummier as well.

If you tuned into the post-draft fantasy content this week, you probably noticed the same thing I did: nearly every analyst sounded a little exhausted, a little frustrated, and a lot more cautious than usual. This was a rough draft for fantasy purposes — but rough drafts are exactly when the people doing the work can build a real edge. Let me walk you through what I'm taking away from it all.

12 personnel is the new black. A lot of this offseason chatter has centered on offenses leaning into "12 personnel" — a fancy way of saying two tight ends on the field at the same time, which forces defenses to play their bigger "base" personnel instead of the smaller, more flexible nickel looks that have dominated lately. Twenty-one tight ends were drafted, with multiple teams double-dipping. JJ Zachariason argued in his mailbag episode that the Jaguars GM literally cited heavier personnel as a league-wide trend when explaining their picks, and that we should expect 11 personnel (three-WR sets) rates to keep dropping. The fantasy implication: a "clear slot guy" or pure pass-catching tight end without route volume is a tougher fantasy bet than it used to be, because there are simply fewer snaps where three receivers are on the field.

The "reach vs. value" question, and why values aren't actually that great either. Everyone's instinct when a player slides is to say "great value!" JJ pushed back hard on that, and I think it's worth understanding. He bucketed every top-100 wide receiver since 2016 into four groups based on how much they outperformed or underperformed where the consensus had them ranked. Big reaches (where one team picked a guy way earlier than the board said) busted at scary rates — only 42% beat their expected production. But here's the kicker: huge values weren't much better. Just 54% outperformed expectations. The sweet spot was minor reaches and minor values, where 63% beat expectations. The takeaway is that when 30+ teams pass on a guy round after round, there's usually a reason the NFL doesn't love him — something is up that we don't see. So when you hear "Chris Bell is such a steal," temper the enthusiasm a bit.

Building models, and how to spot the snake oil. A listener asked JJ about evaluating prospect models, and his answer is worth internalizing if you consume any of this content. "Overfitting" is when a model leans too hard on its past data — for example, if Puka Nacua's profile is in the training set, the model might overweight whatever traits Puka had and start ranking late-round wideouts ahead of first-rounders, which doesn't match how the NFL actually works. Red flags to watch for: anyone touting their model with zero humility, anyone hiding their inputs, and anyone whose results dramatically contradict draft capital without a thoughtful explanation.

When teams don't draft at a position of need, that's information. Some takeaways I'm pocketing:

A few specific data points worth chewing on:

This WR class is cooked at the top, deeper at the bottom. Ben Gretch and Shawn Siegele over at Stealing Bananas argued that the late-second/early-third of rookie drafts could be where this class earns its keep — specifically picks 1.10 through 2.06 are essentially dead, but late round 3 onward gets interesting again because the class is freakishly athletic even if the production is shaky. Names they liked deeper: Antonio Williams to Washington (Heath also has him as the only Day 2 WR with a clear path to a top-2 target role), Brendan Thompson's 4.26 speed in McDaniel's offense, and Skyler Bell as a Bills sleeper.

Carnell Tate is the polarizing pick at the top. Going fourth overall, Tate has the draft capital but a profile a lot of analysts are quietly nervous about. Ben made the case that nearly half of Tate's production last year came on throws over 25 yards downfield, and his after-the-catch numbers are bad. Heath's take is gentler — Tate's career first-downs-per-route-run (essentially how often he turned a play into a successful first down when he ran a route) ranks just 47th-percentile among first-round WRs, meaningfully behind every other Ohio State first-rounder of recent years. The bull case is that Jeremiah Smith was vacuuming up coverage attention; the bear case is Tate didn't actually do much with that opening compared to other receivers facing similar competition.

Ceiling-adjusted FPG is a useful frame for redraft. Kyle Menton's recurring exercise looks at a player's best stretch versus their worst stretch within a season to see which version is more sustainable. The two names that stuck with me: Drake London is a dark-horse overall WR1 candidate — he averaged 24.5 fantasy points per game from Weeks 4-11 last year and now has Mooney gone and possibly Pitts traded. And Parker Washington in Jacksonville is the value play of the offseason at a Round 9 ADP if Travis Hunter shifts to more defensive snaps as reported. Menton also flagged Bucky Irving as someone whose 2025 collapse wasn't fully explained by injuries — his Weeks 1-4 metrics were already at rock-bottom before the ankle issue — which is making me cautious on his early-round price.

The Jeremiyah Love comp set is genuinely elite. Heath's model identifies running backs who play their rookie season at age 21, and the list is basically the all-time greats: Saquon, Zeke, Gurley, McCaffrey, Bijan, Jeanty, Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor. Even with the Cardinals being an iffy fantasy environment, Love stays as a clear top-4 dynasty asset. The Jadarian Price comparison to Kenneth Walker is also worth sitting with — explosive runner, basically no receiving resume, lands in a backfield where the regime has already shown they'll cap that exact archetype.

If I had to boil this entire week down to a single takeaway, it's this: lean into the ambiguity, don't fight it. This is a draft class where the obvious bets aren't really obvious, where reaches will get punished and "values" probably aren't actually values, and where most of the rookie ADP from picks 1.10 to 2.06 is going to fail. That sounds bleak, but it's actually the environment where engaged fantasy players make the most ground on their leaguemates.

The practical version of that: don't blow rookie picks on names just because they got drafted high — Carnell Tate, Kayson Black, Caleb Douglas, Stribling all got capital that doesn't match their profiles. Lean into players in better situations even if the draft capital is lower (Tyson over Tate, Antonio Williams in Washington, Jonah Coleman behind a fragile Broncos backfield, Jadarian Price for the cheap floor). And don't ignore your veterans — the rookie class being weak means guys like Chase Brown, Drake London, Tee Higgins, Parker Washington, and Josh Downs are quietly the actual league-winners of this offseason. The chaos is the opportunity.

[The Athletic's Nate Atkins expects Rams RB Kyren Williams to be the "primary third-down back and between-the-tackles runner" in "more of a 50-50 split" this season.] The thread is overwhelmingly skeptical of yet another offseason prediction that Kyren Williams is about to lose work, with the community noting they hear this same take every year only for Kyren to deliver another 1,300-yard, double-digit-TD season. Several commenters criticized Atkins' piece for lacking quotes from anyone close to the Rams and even acknowledging the backfield still belongs to Kyren. The prevailing view is that the Rams know who their better back is and want to keep him healthy, with one user joking that someone is just trying to buy Kyren cheap in dynasty.

[Deshaun Watson taking first-team reps, viewed as Week 1 favorite]

Browns fans and fantasy managers are incredulous at the idea of Cleveland returning to Deshaun Watson, with most viewing the report as agent-driven noise rather than a real evaluation. Several commenters argued that no meaningful QB battle is decided in minicamp and that the Browns owe it to themselves to see what Shedeur Sanders has across a full training camp. Others mocked the framing — suggesting the only purpose of putting Watson out there is to make Sanders look better by comparison — and called out the lazy AI-generated sentiment stats attached to the report. Consensus: don't draft accordingly yet.

[Tight End TD Regression Candidates for 2026] Commenters dug into the data and pushed back on a few of the model's outputs. Several were surprised Helm didn't grade as a positive regression candidate, while others noted McBride's persistent "tackled at the one" issue cost him touchdowns in 2024. There was skepticism that Ferguson would slide much given Dak's affinity for tight ends in the red zone. Barner was floated as a likely repeater given chemistry with his QB, and Otton drew interest as a sneaky candidate now that Mike Evans is gone and Tampa handed him a sizable contract. Kraft also came up as a name returning to a cleaner Packers WR room.

[Falling Knives]

The OP's fade list drew strong pushback, particularly on Odunze, with multiple commenters calling the "looked terrible as a rookie" framing pure box-score watching and pointing to his easy separation on limited opportunities. Others noted Stribling is a dynasty play, not a redraft target. One commenter offered counter-takes worth chewing on: Mike Evans potentially producing a Davante Adams-style season while Kittle is out, and AJ Brown sniffing top-5 if relocated to New England or Kansas City. Overall the thread leaned toward the OP's analysis being too reactionary.

[Jonathon Brooks Might be the most affordable RB1 in your dynasty league]

The pitch to buy Jonathon Brooks cheap got a frosty reception from actual Brooks owners, who insisted they're not moving him for a 2nd in a weak class. One owner who paid a 1st said no chance after holding two years. Others pointed out the buy-low window was a year ago, not now, and that anyone still rostering Brooks isn't doing the seller a favor. A skeptic noted at least Javonte had flashed before going down, raising fair questions about applying that comp here.

[Broadly's Final 2026 Rookie RB Rankings] The community welcomed Broadly's deep-dive on the rookie RB class with questions about methodology — specifically how much of the score is driven by production metrics versus measurable traits versus film grades. Commenters were curious how Singleton would compare to Washington with equivalent testing data, and asked for thoughts on Jonah Coleman. Several agreed with the broader framing that this RB class — like the 2026 WR and TE classes — looks better suited for teams in early rebuild windows than for contenders shopping for immediate help.

[Separating Apart the Hodgepodge of 3rd Round Receivers] Opinions varied wildly on how to sort the late-round rookie WRs. Chris Bell topped most lists on upside grounds — landing in a wide-open Dolphins WR room with a real shot at being the clear primary if healthy — though one commenter pushed back that ranking an ACL recovery atop the group says plenty about the tier's depth. Ted Hurd, Williams, and Fields drew mentions, with one user advocating for handcuff RBs or aging-starter TEs as better uses of late picks. Another said they'd take Sarratt over any of the listed names.

[The difference between Sadiq and Stowers] The thread leaned toward Stowers as the more bankable rookie TE bet. Commenters emphasized his college production — winning the country's top TE award just two years after switching from QB — and a landing spot in Philadelphia with a strong track record of developing the position. Sadiq's testing was elite (the fastest 40 ever by a TE), but Stowers tested well too, including a combine-record vertical, while posting double the career yards. The Jets landing spot was also held against Sadiq. A few defended Sadiq on athletic ceiling alone, but production talked louder here.

[How bad is Omar Cooper's landing spot?] Forget the landing spot — the thread universally framed Omar Cooper at 2.06 as outrageous value given many had him pegged as a first-round talent. Commenters argued that grabbing first-round value in the middle of the second is a win regardless of where he landed. The optimistic case: he projects as the best WR outside Garrett Wilson on the Jets and could grow into the clear WR2 with an upgraded offensive line and Geno Smith under center. The pessimistic side was largely absent — even skeptics conceded the price made the pick.

[A Model-Based View on Post-Draft WR & RB Risers & Fallers] The OP's post-draft model sparked plenty of practical draft talk. One commenter at 2.06 was hoping Coleman or Johnson would fall, citing Dobbins' and K9's injury histories opening lead-back paths. Others were torn between Bell and Williams at 1.12, with Bell's college numbers standing out in that range. A few highlighted late-round fliers like Stribling, Sarratt, and Skyler Bell as football-first picks beyond what analytics capture. Adam Randall in Baltimore got a question but limited engagement.